A Reuters photographer captured U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s notepad at a Cabinet meeting, revealing one word, written and underlined. Not a policy target. Not a GDP forecast.
Just one word, underscored as if to remind himself to stay on message.
The word was “resilience.” And what Bessent said out loud about oil prices was just as deliberate.
What Bessent said about oil and what his Cabinet meeting notes revealed
At a Cabinet meeting on May 28, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the room that elevated oil costs are “transitory” and pledged that “oil will be lower than pre-conflict levels when this ends,” according to The New Republic, which published Reuters photographer Evan Vucci’s image of Bessent’s notes.
The notepad told its own story. Alongside “Resilience”, written and underlined, Bessent had jotted “Operation Economic Fury,” a reference to the administration’s sanctions campaign against Iran.
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Below that appeared “Just in time, just in case” with a check mark, followed by additional mentions of “resilience” and “prosperity.”
The words on that pad were not accidental. They were a framing exercise for a Treasury Secretary trying to hold a consistent public narrative about the economy while oil prices remain elevated and ceasefire talks with Iran continue to stall.
“Transitory” is a loaded word: why Bessent used it to describe oil situation
The word “transitory” carries baggage. Former Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell used it to describe the 2021 inflation surge. It became one of the most criticized policy calls in recent Federal Reserve history as prices rose above 9% and the Fed was forced into the most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in decades.
Bessent is aware of that history. He has previously drawn a sharp contrast between then and now. “I was never on team transitory during Covid,” he told CNBC in May.
His argument is structural. The 2021 inflation was broad, demand-driven, and fueled by unprecedented fiscal stimulus. The current situation, however, is a supply shock with a specific origin in the Strait of Hormuz and a foreseeable end when the Iran conflict resolves.
At a Semafor dinner on April 13, Bessent made the same case. “If ever there was ‘Team Transitory,’ it’s this,” he said.
“I don’t believe this is going to get embedded into inflation expectations. We can see forward inflation expectations; they are well-anchored,” he added, according to Semafor.
T. Fallon/Getty Images
The inflation data Bessent is contending with
The argument faces real headwinds. March CPI rose 3.3%, the highest reading since May 2024, driven by a 21% month-over-month surge in gasoline prices. April CPI came in at 3.8% year over year as energy costs continued to feed through, according to Benzinga.
Bessent has acknowledged the hot prints directly. He has said the market should expect “one, two more hot inflation numbers” before substantial disinflation kicks in, Benzinga confirmed.
His confidence rests on the gap between headline and core. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, came in below expectations in March, the data point he has been using to argue the problem is narrow and energy-specific, not embedded.
He has also put direct pressure on the downstream supply chain. At the CNBC Invest in America Forum, he pointedly warned gas stations.
“We’ll be looking at Treasury to try to keep the retail gas stations honest: that you did this on the way up, better be doing this on the way down,” according to Fox Business. “And I am sure the president will call out anyone who’s a bad actor.”
Key figures on Bessent’s oil and inflation message:
- Cabinet meeting statement: Bessent said oil costs are “transitory” and pledged “oil will be lower than pre-conflict levels when this ends” at May 28 Cabinet meeting; Reuters photographer captured notepad showing “Resilience” underlined and “Operation Economic Fury,” according to The New Republic.
- Prior statements: “I firmly believe that nothing is more transient than a supply shock,” Bessent told CNBC on May 14; predicted “substantial disinflation” ahead, CNBC noted.
- Inflation data: March CPI 3.3%, highest since May 2024; April CPI 3.8% year-over-year; gasoline up 21% month-over-month in March; core inflation below estimates in March, according to Benzinga.
- Market skepticism: Kalshi traders pricing 39% chance inflation breaches 5% this year; 23.4% chance it hits 5.5%; prediction markets disagreeing with Bessent’s crude spike reversal timeline, Benzinga confirmed.
- Gas station warning: Treasury will keep gas stations “honest” on the way down; President Donald Trump will call out “bad actors,” Fox Business reported.
- Fed context:Kevin Warsh took over as Federal Reserve Chair on May 14; rates expected to hold steady until later in 2026; Bessent says rates should come down “eventually,” according to Newsweek.
What the market is watching and what could prove Bessent wrong
The skepticism is real. Prediction markets are not buying the crude spike reversal timeline Bessent is projecting. Kalshi traders are pricing a 39% chance inflation breaches 5% this year, according to Benzinga.
The ceasefire talks with Iran that stalled this week are the most direct test of whether “when this ends” arrives on the administration’s timeline or someone else’s.
If oil retreats as the Iran conflict resolves and U.S. production ramps further, the data will validate the Cabinet meeting message. If the Strait of Hormuz stays disrupted and energy feeds into services and wages, “transitory” risks becoming as politically damaging a phrase for this administration as it was for the previous Fed.
What this means for investors watching oil and rates
For investors, Bessent’s message carries two practical implications. The first is on rates.
If the supply-shock thesis holds and headline inflation falls back as oil stabilizes, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has room to cut later in 2026. That would be constructive for bonds and rate-sensitive equities.
The second is on energy stocks. Bessent’s public commitment that oil will fall below pre-conflict levels is a direct headwind for names that have rallied on sustained high crude.
Exxon Mobil and Chevron have both benefited from the Iran disruption, according to Benzinga. A reversal to pre-conflict levels would compress that trade sharply.
The word on Bessent’s notepad was “resilience.” The word he said out loud was “transitory.”
Both are bets on the same outcome: that the Iran war’s disruption to oil markets ends, and ends on a timeline that keeps the economy intact. Whether that plays out is the question investors and prediction markets are now pricing against each other.
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