Since its $1.9 billion acquisition of Hawaiian Airlines, Seattle-based Alaska Air Group has gotten serious about international expansion.
So much, in fact, that it has begun billing itself as America’s “fourth global airline,” with plans to launch 12 international destinations from its Seattle hub by 2030. Five of those have been announced thus far: Tokyo-Narita (NRT), Seoul-Incheon (ICN), Rome (FCO), London (LHR), and Reykjavik Airport (RKV).
That leaves seven more global destinations for the company to announce in the next three and a half years, likely to coincide with deliveries of the company’s “largest fleet order” in history, which would bring its Seattle-based 787 fleet to 17.
Increasingly, we’re curious where Alaska will venture next. There have been hints, and there’s a lot of evidence that the airline’s robust airline alliances (oneworld), Seattle’s affluent business and tech presence, and its high concentration of skilled immigrants will play a role.
We take a stab with a tier list of sorts, which is based on demand, appeal for premium or business customers, and the airline’s existing partnerships through the oneworld alliance.
Ready for takeoff?
Airline hawks suspect Alaska will prioritize destinations which support its oneworld airlines, but also appeal to its more premium clientele. There are evidently some leading candidates, some of which might not be super surprising:
Taipei, Taiwan
With Alaska’s forays into Asia, a Taipei direct could be on the horizon. It’s not just among the top five business destinations for Seattle-based travelers, but one which has proven, durable demand for other carriers.
Seattle already counts directs to Taipei by international carriers such as EVA Air, China Airlines, STARLUX, and Delta. They’re also fairly well sold, with load factors over 70% across the airlines, outranking other destinations.
Some of this can be credited to its robust connections to other Asian destinations, but a lot of it also is owed to the strength of the country’s semiconductor industry.
However, there are reasons to believe that Alaska might want to avoid the rat race and being a fifth international player. Perhaps the biggest piece of evidence against it? It didn’t make the shortlist of destinations best served from its Seattle hub in the airline’s aforementioned 2024 Investor Day presentation.
Delhi, India
Just before the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, American Airlines announced that it would launch a flight from Seattle, WA to Bangalore, India by year-end, in large part because of its partnership with Alaska.
Of course, that route never panned out, facing delay after delay before being ultimately shelved. That was despite American’s SVP of Network Strategy at the time declaring India “a gross underserved market, despite the number of businesses with a major presence in both India and the West Coast.”
With Alaska’s foray into international, and some ongoing coordination with American, it only seems to be a matter of time before Alaska seizes on that underserved market and adds at least one destination in India.
American singled out Bangalore in 2020 for its tech hub. However, Delhi was the one that Alaska singled out in past commentary, with only one nonstop (Air India) from its hub today. Other Indian destinations like Bengaluru or Mumbai could also make for solid destinations, even with less traffic.
Getting warmer
Paris, France (CDG)
While London might be a dominant intercontinental destination for Seattle-based travelers, Paris, France is not far behind. In fact, it would rank second to London in long-haul business travel.
It was also one of the airports called out in the airline’s 2024 Investor Day presentation, making it a leading candidate to make the shortlist of seven destinations that Alaska prioritizes through 2030.
This route is already served by Delta, which has a meaningful nonstop monopoly here, setting up a clear contest with Alaska’s hub arch nemesis.
Of course, Paris remains a wildly competitive market. It is not just home to a SkyTeam airlines like Delta or Air France, but other oneworld alliance airlines, perhaps underscoring the connection opportunity.
For the reasons aforementioned, Alaska might choose to forego France, or launch it with another European destination (like Madrid, Spain) for good measure.
Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
There were three southeast Asian destinations featured in Alaska’s 2024 Investor Day Presentation that still lack a nonstop from Seattle. The busiest among them was Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
Today, just two of those nonstops still uncontested, but Ho Chi Minh still takes the cake. In fact, it ranks among the top ten destinations for international flyers out of Seattle today. And with this destination largely served with Taiwan-based airlines like EVA Air and STARLUX, Alaska could seize by simply cutting Taiwan out entirely and flying it direct.
Maybe ready for takeoff?
These are destinations which are possible, but we’re might not necessarily be holding our breath for, possibly because there exists a better option:
Madrid, Spain
While the smart money might be on Alaska elbowing its way into Paris, which serves as the second-busiest long-haul European market, Alaska might feel that there’s a better risk/reward on the Iberian Peninsula.
Madrid, Spain remains a potentially interesting option for Alaska, unserved by a nonstop from Seattle, but also well-served by oneworld partner Iberia, creating an opportunity to connect Alaska fliers to European and African destinations.
Bangkok, Thailand
Philippines Airlines’ Seattle to Manilla direct flight, plus its admission into the oneworld alliance, more or less precludes a PH-bound destination for Alaska.
However, that’s no matter, because the second of the three destinations called out in Alaska’s presentation had even more traffic and remains an elusive, direct-less destination from Seattle: Bangkok, Thailand.
Behind Ho Chi Minh, Bangkok would likely be a solid anchor for Alaska’s international strategy.
Stretch destinations
We’re still a little short of the seven, but it might be fair to assume that the seventh destination has a chance to be one of these sought-after destinations:
Sydney, Australia
In April, Alaska Airlines began showing its first-ever safety video on the in-flight entertainment screens on the new 787 Dreamliner aircraft. It provided a unique clue into what Alaska’s next global destination could be.
In its safety video, the airline shows clips from around its Seattle hub, as well as its new international destinations. However, one inclusion surprised customers: Sydney, Australia. That was because many were unaware that Hawaiian Airlines already flies a Sydney to Honolulu flight on its Airbus A330 aircraft.
However, it has led some to speculate that Alaska’s 787 aircraft could soon make the trek directly from Seattle to the Australian destination; a 15 hour flight between the two emerald cities.
It would be surprising because in its 2024 Investor Day pitch presentation, the airline signaled that the Australian destination would be marginally better served by an airport like San Francisco or Los Angeles, rather than Seattle.
But in light of Alaska’s decision to yoink the popular Honolulu to Seoul nonstop in favor of a Seattle to Seoul nonstop, it’s not worth ruling out any possibilities.
Helsinki, Finland
While business demand might favor a destination like Dublin, Ireland, Alaska has a better partner connection in Helsinki, Finland, the home to oneworld partner Finnair.
It might not be the most popular route out of Seattle. In fact, Finnair already operates a seasonal nonstop, but it has been one of the airline’s weaker routes.
Perhaps Alaska assumes that selling into this route, then taking advantage of its oneworld colleague’s reach in Finland, might be a better spend of time and energy.
Other (unrealistic) predictions
Long-term, it’s fair to assume that Alaska would like to pick up another Japan destination, perhaps Tokyo-Narita (NRT), which is closer to Downtown Tokyo and has earned a more premium view for its proximity. Today, Hawaiian Airlines serves Haneda via Honolulu, as well as Osaka Kansai (KIX). But if you’re a Seattle-based traveler, you might choose to fly competitor Delta to NRT before you fly Alaska to HND.
You’d have to assume that the launch of one India designation might also offer a proving grounds for an additional one. If Alaska were to option Delhi, perhaps tech hub Bangalore or financial hub Mumbai wouldn’t be far behind, assuming the demand can keep the prices high enough to justify the hours-long southerly detour required to reach India from Seattle.
However, we can’t get too far ahead of ourselves. In the airline industry, four years is a long time. The industry can quickly reinvent itself, or redirect its energy somewhere else, in mere years. While Alaska might be married to its long-haul strategy, we assume it might not be as married to the destinations yet. From this vantage, anything is possible.