Intel (INTC) stock has lost about 19.17% since hitting its highest-ever closing price of $129.44 on May 11. It is currently trading at $104.62, according to Yahoo Finance at the time of writing, Tuesday morning, May 19.
News that has contributed to the INTC stock rally:
- Intel repurchased Apollo’s (APO) equity interest in the joint venture related to Intel’s Fab 34 in Ireland.
- The company said it will join Elon Musk’s Terafab project, as reported by Reuters.
- Intel expanded a multiyear partnership with Google to build out AI and cloud infrastructure.
- Intel reported better-than-expected earnings.
- Intel signed a preliminary agreement with Apple to manufacture chips, the Wall Street Journal reported.
However, the rally seems to have hit a bump.
A few news items have contributed to the drop.
The tumble started on May 12, when, according to Yahoo Finance, Mizuho raised the price target to $124 (below the trading price at the time) and maintained a neutral rating.
UBS analysts issued a strong warning about semiconductor stocks, Proactive reported.
Most semiconductor stocks dipped on May 15, and a possible cause of this sell-off was President Donald Trump’s meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, which ended without major chip deals, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.
In addition to these factors, Nvidia’s Q1 fiscal year 2027 earnings are set to be released on May 20. It has become a common pattern for Nvidia’s stock to experience volatility near earnings, and a hit to Nvidia can spill over to other semiconductor stocks dependent on the AI boom.
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Melius Research raises Intel stock price target
Melius Research Partner and Head of Technology Research, analyst Benjamin Reitzes updated his opinion on Intel stock, following President Trump’s trip to China, according to TipRanks. Reitzes TipRanks profile shows a 62% success rate and an average return of 21.0%.
He said that “nothing really emerged as incrementally good from Trump going to China.”
Nonetheless, he still believes in the strength of memory and AI semiconductor manufacturers. He expects that semiconductor manufacturers will take market capitalization, or at least the upside, from traditional software companies and non-semiconductor manufacturers that are part of the Magnificent 7 in the long run.
More Tech Stocks:
- 5-star analysts reset Broadcom stock price target
- Bank of America resets Microsoft stock forecast after earnings
- Bank of America resets Google stock forecast before key event
Reitzes reiterated a buy rating for Intel stock and raised the price target to $150 from $100. His price target implies an upside of 43.37% from the current trading price.
It is very important to note that his price target is the highest among all analyst ratings for Intel, according to TipRanks. Of 38 ratings, only 11 analysts rate Intel as a buy, with an average price target of $87.09.
Bank of America is still bearish on Intel
Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya and his team recently updated their opinion on Intel stock. Contrary to Reitzes, they have a very bearish view of the situation. Arya has a 64% success rate and an average return of 27.0%.
He wrote: “We note even if a formal deal comes out tomorrow, it would still likely require another 2-3 years for the formal capex buildout, qualification, tapeout, etc.” He added that Intel management has consistently said that additional wafer customers would require additional capex, and that meaningful volume might only start in 2028 and beyond.
Related: Keybanc sets jaw-dropping Nvidia stock price target before earnings
Intel’s biggest problem is that fabs are extremely expensive to run; it doesn’t have enough third-party customers, and, on top of that, as Arya noted, even if it gets them, it may not have enough manufacturing capacity.
According to FORM 10-Q, Intel’s Foundry business lost $2.4 billion in Q1 2026, and it lost $2.3 billion in Q1 2025.
Arya rates Intel with an underperform (sell) rating and the price target of $96, based on a conceptual sum-of-parts valuation that values the internal Integrated Device Manufacturer at $74 and external foundry at $21 to $22, in line with competitive peers.
Bank of America analysts noted downside risks for Intel stock:
- Lower-than-expected ramp at Intel Foundry, particularly for its new 18A and upcoming 14A nodes
- Lack of material external foundry customer in wafer processing
- Weaker-than-expected trends in a mature PC market
- Accelerated share loss to major CPU competitors
Upside risks:
- Key external foundry packaging/wafer deals that could significantly boost sales/utilization
- Greater-than-expected yields/ramps at 18A and upcoming 14A nodes
- Stronger-than-expected PC market from Windows 10 refresh or AI uplift
- Geopolitical tensions boosting sentiment for domestic manufacturing assets
Related: AMD buys $6.5 million of surging tech stock