SoftBank’s big OpenAI play faces critical new hurdle

On June 1, 2026, SoftBank Group did something it hadn’t done in over two decades: it overtook Toyota as Japan’s most valuable company. The milestone lasted just over a week before a setback tested the company’s artificial intelligence (AI) investment thesis.

Bloomberg reported on June 10 that SoftBank’s efforts to borrow at least $6 billion through a margin loan backed by its OpenAI stake have stalled.

SoftBank shares dropped as much as 9.7% in Tokyo trading on the news, eventually closing down 8.33% in one of this year’s sharpest single-day declines.

The setback arrives at a difficult time for SoftBank, as it also faces a $40 billion unsecured bridge loan due in March 2027.

SoftBank’s margin loan target shrinks before talks collapse

SoftBank originally sought $10 billion for the margin loan in May 2026, a target it cut by 40% after lender enthusiasm faded, Bloomberg reported.

Even the reduced $6 billion target failed to close the deal, and discussions between the two sides have now paused without a clear timeline.

The company had reportedly secured about $5 billion in commitments before negotiations stopped, though it remains unclear whether those were verbal or written pledges.

SoftBank has made itself into a highly leveraged bet on AI, which carries significant upside as well as risk

SoftBank declined to comment on the development, and its representatives have not elaborated on the company’s alternative fundraising plans.

The loan was designed to provide SoftBank with liquidity to continue funding its AI ambitions without selling any of its prized OpenAI stake.

Lenders struggle to price SoftBank’s OpenAI collateral

The core issue is that OpenAI remains privately held, so banks cannot value the collateral in real time or sell it quickly during downturns, Bloomberg stated.

Margin loans traditionally rely on liquid public assets that lenders can price daily, making private equity stakes far more complex as collateral.

OpenAI was valued at $852 billion in its latest March 2026 funding round, following a record $122 billion raise. The figure comes from a private-market deal without a daily public pricing mechanism, CNBC reported.

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Richard Windsor, founder of equity research firm Radio Free Mobile, told CNBC that SoftBank’s financing risks are growing alongside its concentration in a single company.

“If OpenAI fails to deliver, there could easily be a liquidity crunch at SoftBank,” Windsor told CNBC.

Competition from rival Anthropic has further complicated the picture, with some investors questioning whether OpenAI’s dominant market position justifies its current valuation, Bloomberg noted.

A $40 billion bridge loan adds urgency to SoftBank’s funding needs

The margin loan setback compounds a more pressing obligation, because SoftBank must also repay a $40 billion unsecured bridge loan by March 2027.

That facility, arranged with JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Mizuho Bank, and other major lenders in March 2026, financed SoftBank’s follow-on investment in OpenAI.

SoftBank has said it will repay the bridge loan through existing assets and other financing measures, but the margin loan setback narrows those options.

S&P Global Ratings lowered its credit outlook on SoftBank to negative in March, citing concerns that aggressive AI investments could strain the company’s liquidity position.

OpenAI’s confidential IPO could reset SoftBank’s AI exposure and financing plans

OpenAI announced on June 8 that it filed confidentially for an initial public offering in the United States, a development that could transform SoftBank’s position.

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are leading the potential offering, with analysts pointing to a debut window between September and November of this year, CNBC reported.

A successful listing would convert SoftBank’s illiquid OpenAI position into tradable shares, simplifying future borrowing and creating a clearer path to repaying the $40 billion bridge loan.

Hua Cheng, head of Asia credit research at AllianceBernstein, told Bloomberg that the stalled margin loan does not necessarily represent a standalone cause for concern.

“The best-case scenario is an OpenAI IPO this year, with SoftBank offloading part of its stake to pay down debt,” Cheng said.

SoftBank’s broader portfolio offers a cushion despite the financing setback

Despite the margin loan stumble, SoftBank’s portfolio still holds significant assets it could use for future borrowing or to generate cash through strategic sales.

The company holds roughly 90% of Arm Holdings, whose shares have surged 197% in 2026 as global demand for AI chip architecture accelerated.

SoftBank’s annual net profit quadrupled to more than $30 billion in its most recent fiscal year, driven largely by valuation gains on its AI-related holdings.

The company could also issue new bonds or borrow against other listed holdings in its portfolio, though each alternative carries its own tradeoffs, Bloomberg reported.

Related: SoftBank CEO doubles down on AI, stock market message for 2026