Broadcast Retirement Network’s Jeffrey Snyder discusses the impact of the Iran War and the Naval Blockade on global food prices with the George W. Bush Institute’s Elizabeth Trudeau Kennedy.
Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network
Joining me now, Elizabeth Kennedy Trudeau. She is the Bradford M. Freeman Managing Director of Global Policy at the George W. Bush Institute. Elizabeth, great to meet you.
Thanks for joining us on the program this morning.
Elizabeth Kennedy Trudeau, The George W. Bush Institute
Thanks, Jeffrey. Thanks for having me on.
Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network
And I want to get into the crust of our conversation, which is about energy prices, food prices globally. But let me just ask you, can you, for the audience’s benefit, could you just talk a little bit about the George W. Bush Presidential Library and the Institute?
Elizabeth Kennedy Trudeau, The George W. Bush Institute
No, it’s great. So we’re located in Dallas, Texas. So the Bush Center is located just off FMU’s campus.
It’s three parts. So we do have the Presidential Library, which I would encourage anyone to visit. It’s a really moving memorial that reflects President and Mrs. Bush’s time in the White House, not only the big impact of their presidency, including the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS response, their work globally, but also the issues that impacted the United States, like the attacks of 9-11. We have the Institute here, of which I’m the Managing Director for Global Policy. I have a counterpart who works on domestic issues. But on the global policy issues, we really focus on the issues that reflect President and Mrs. Bush’s policies on compassion, accountability, opportunity, things that reflect American leadership, compassion, and the way America interacts with the world.
Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network
Well, we thank you for coming on. Thank you for that. Let’s talk about this blockade.
There’s obviously been, I think, everyone, unless you’ve been under a rock, joke, that’s just a joke, of course, people know about the war with Iran. They know about the blockade. But this has an impact, Elizabeth, and we’ve had, as I told you, we had David Anderson, who is an economist from Texas A&M, give us his perspective.
But this really has a geopolitical effect on energy costs and food costs as well.
Elizabeth Kennedy Trudeau, The George W. Bush Institute
It does. And I’m glad that people are talking about it now, because I think as Americans, we really concentrate on what’s happening in the United States, rightly. I think anyone who’s watching television on any day can see the price at the pump, you know, or what’s reflected when you check out your groceries.
But I think what we also need to recognize as Americans, as the impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has on the world around, so not only on energy prices, but also on the impact on what’s going to happen in the next three to six months. So already, what you’re seeing first on fuel is that you’re seeing countries in East Asia, as well as Africa, they’re starting to ration fuel. You’re starting to see longer lines at the pump.
You’re starting to see people, our countries, tell their citizens to work from home. You’re seeing school closures. It’s not really well reported in the United States.
But more importantly, and something we’re very focused on now, is the impact of the Strait of Hormuz on fertilizer. You know, right now, across much of Africa, as well as South and Southeast Asia, it’s planting season. And about one third of the world’s fertilizer and fertilizer components goes through the Strait of Hormuz.
So what you’re seeing now is farmers having to make choices. You know, the United Nations says right now, I think I have to check my numbers, I want to say it’s one in eight people suffer from food insecurity around the world. So as farmers make that choice now, either they cannot use fertilizer or they delay their planting.
So you’re going to see lower yields and you’re going to see higher prices. So you already have a food insecure world. As this blockade continues, you’re going to see even deeper impacts in some of the most insecure places in the world.
And I think what you and I both know is food insecurity and famine is a trigger for conflict. So what happens overseas matters to us at home. And this is something we have to watch.
Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network
Yeah. And again, I kind of come from this as, you know, I’m just a layperson. I don’t have your expertise as serving as a diplomat.
But there are these implications. And I guess, let me ask you about, you know, farmers overseas have to make choices. And it is planting season.
And, you know, if, for example, the Strait of Hormuz were to be opened up tomorrow, how would that impact? Would that change the outcomes? Would that be enough time for planters, for farmers to grow their crops and to feed their fellow countrymen?
Elizabeth Kennedy Trudeau, The George W. Bush Institute
I think, you know, anyone who’s a business person who has, you know, run, you know, a small business or a large corporation knows that there’s a chain that would require production. Same thing for fertilizer. You know, if the Strait opens tomorrow, it’ll certainly help.
We’re still going to see the impact. You know, one thing that I think people think is, well, how do we fix this? You know, certainly opening up the Strait, coming to a resolution with Iran on this would certainly help.
But I also think the idea of some sort of coordinated, you know, through the United Nations, through the African Union, way of taking a look at this and making sure that farmers have what they need and providing also the support, either through food assistance, emergency aid, is also something that the United States could look at.
Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network
Yeah, I was going to ask you about that. How do we, what can we do? Obviously, we’re fighting this battle, negotiating whatever the diplomacy that’s taking place.
There are other parts of the world where America, you know, it’s not a, we’re an interconnected world. So what can we do? Because we don’t want to see conflict.
You know, I remember, look, I remember USA for Africa, as an example, feed the world. I’m that old, Quincy Jones. And I remember the famine there.
We don’t want to go back to that. We want to try to fix that because, as you said, we want to minimize conflict. So what steps can we take?
I’m sure you’re leading the charge there, but what steps can we take as a country to minimize that risk?
Elizabeth Kennedy Trudeau, The George W. Bush Institute
I think, frankly, you’re taking the first step now is making sure that people understand there is a direct correlation between hunger and conflict. And the correlation between a lack of fuel and fertilizer to hunger is right there as well. So the idea of opening up this trade, of course, is very important.
It’s important, you know, as we know, for a national security priority. But it’s also important to take a look at those downstream effects, how it’s how it’s impacting not just the United States, but how it’s impacting, you know, countries across Africa, how it’s impacting countries in Southeast Asia, because hungry people have desperate choices.
Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network
And that’s a situation that we don’t want anyone to And, you know, America is a leader in the world for a lot of reasons, militarily, economically, and you served, previously served in, we were talking about some of your diplomatic roles. I have to imagine that your counterparts in today’s State Department are openly talking with their counterparts in some of these countries and trying to, you know, I’m just assuming, you know, that they’re not living in a vacuum. They’re talking about ways, they’re finding out the pulse of these countries and figuring and bringing that information back.
And then the U.S. has to figure out a way to help.
Elizabeth Kennedy Trudeau, The George W. Bush Institute
I think not only the U.S., but also with our allies and partners. You know, the great thing about living in an interconnected world is the United States doesn’t need to act alone. You know, we have good friends and we built up decades of goodwill.
American leadership matters. And this is when America can act as a convener. This is when we can go to multilateral institutions and identify a problem and table some solutions.
I think you’re already seeing a lot of discourse on this issue. There’s been great reporting, including yours, on this issue. But again, this is something we’ve got to get ahead of, because I don’t want to have this conversation with you in four or five months and say, you know, there’s famine now.
And we knew it was coming. We see the train coming down the tracks.
Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network
So, Elizabeth, just to kind of follow up on that, is four or five months, is that the drop dead? I mean, you know, it’s hard to figure out because these are, you know, things are moving asymmetrically but over here in Iran, but also in these countries. I mean, they’re individual people and individual countries are all doing their own thing.
So are there, is there a point of no return where we’re really going to see that we have to make a decision, I guess?
Elizabeth Kennedy Trudeau, The George W. Bush Institute
I mean, honestly, the decision should be made now. I know, I know people across the U.S. government, across our partner and allied governments are really thinking about the next steps on the conflict in Iran. What I would just posit is that we’ve got to think about the long-term effects, too.
You know, the fuel crisis and the food crisis that impact the United States, but also the national security implications of famine, of fuel crises overseas.
Jeffrey Snyder, Broadcast Retirement Network
Yeah, certainly a lot to manage. I mean, you know, from a layperson speaking for myself and no one else, I just go to the pump, I see the pump going up. I’m like, shoot, the pump’s going up.
And then I go to the food store and say, oh, eggs are X, Y and Z or beef is X, Y and Z. You don’t really contemplate the other things that have such a major impact. And they actually do impact us longer term.
You know, if we have insecurity in food and conflict abroad, that’s going to impact our prices, but it’s going to impact us, too, because we’ll be less safe. Elizabeth, we’re going to have to leave it there. But look, it was great to meet you.
Great to talk to you. And look, we look forward to having you back on the program again very soon.
Elizabeth Kennedy Trudeau, The George W. Bush Institute
That’s great. And thank you so much for the opportunity.