There’s a certain kind of analyst who doesn’t talk much when he’s wrong and doesn’t celebrate long when he’s right. Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle is that kind of analyst.
Sarge is a former NYSE floor trader with more than 30 years of experience and the founder and president of Sarge986 LLC. On Friday, May 8, 2026, Guilfoyle set a $112 price target on Rocket Lab (RKLB) after a strong earnings beat on May 7th. Rocket Lab surged 34% in its best day ever on a revenue beat, according to ETF Database.
On Monday, May 11, the stock blew straight through it, surging to touch all-time highs of $123. TD Cowen raised its target to $120 from $90, after earnings, with a buy rating, according to The Fly. That got hit, too.
Morgan Stanley upgraded Rocket Lab (RKLB) to overweight from equal weight and raised its price target to $105 from $67 in January 2026. That got hit as well.
By Monday, May 11, at the closing bell, RKLB was up 11% to $117.35, according to Yahoo Finance, after a slight retracement from its new all-time high. The crowd was cheering. Sarge was already asking the next question.
Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck had given them plenty to cheer about. “We exited the quarter with $2.2 billion in backlog,” he said in a company statement, “and currently have access to more than $2 billion in liquidity, putting us in a very strong position for continued growth and M&A execution.”
But when a stock does what RKLB just did, the question shifts fast, from “can it go up?” to “how much is already priced in?”
Rocket Lab’s record Q1 earnings gave Wall Street almost everything it wanted
The numbers that triggered the surge were genuinely exceptional. Rocket Lab posted Q1 2026 revenue of $200.3 million, up 63.5% year over year (YoY) and a new company record, according to a company statement.
Key Rocket Lab first quarter 2026 highlights:
- Revenue: $200.3 million, up 63.5% YoY
- GAAP gross margin: 38.2%, also a record
- Backlog: $2.2 billion, up 20.2% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ)
- New Electron and HASTE contracts signed in Q1: 31, more than all of 2025 combined
- Total contracted launch manifest: Exceeds 70 missions
Source: Rocket Lab First Quarter 2026 Financial Results
The company also closed the acquisition of Mynaric AG and signed a deal to acquire Motiv Space Systems, adding Mars-proven robotics and solar array drive assemblies — components that had previously been costly external dependencies.
For Q2 2026, Rocket Lab guided revenue between $225 million and $240 million, with non-GAAP gross margins of 38% to 40%, according to the company statement.
LightRocket via Getty Images
The defense contracts that changed the conversation around RKLB
Beyond the earnings beat, two contract wins reshaped how Wall Street is sizing up Rocket Lab’s long-term opportunity.
First, Rocket Lab was selected to support the Department of War’s Space-Based Interceptor program, a core component of President Donald Trump’s Golden Dome for America initiative, in partnership with Raytheon.
The deal calls on both Rocket Lab’s launch and satellite capabilities, according to the company statement. The company has separately secured a $190 million deal with the Department of War, according to Rocket Lab.
Related: Morgan Stanley tweaks Rocket Lab stock price target post-rally
Second, Rocket Lab unveiled a $30 million contract with defense company Anduril Industries for three hypersonic test launches using its HASTE vehicle from Launch Complex 2 in Virginia, with the first mission scheduled within 12 months.
I crunched the numbers on what this means for the backlog story. At $2.2 billion and growing, Rocket Lab’s contracted revenue pipeline now runs well ahead of its current quarterly run rate. That’s the kind of visibility that justifies premium valuations, at least on paper.
Why Sarge is watching technicals, not just the headline numbers
Here’s where the story gets more nuanced. Guilfoyle had been tracking RKLB’s technical setup carefully heading into earnings.
In a report at TheStreet Pro, Sarge flagged that the stock had broken out of a falling wedge — a classically bullish reversal pattern — in mid-April, and had been holding support at its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA).
His $112 target was rooted in that technical read. The stock cleared it and kept going. Now, with RKLB trading well above both his target, Morgan Stanley’s target, and TD Cowen’s revised $120 level, Guilfoyle’s stance is that demand continues to support the move.
More Wall Street:
- JPMorgan resets S&P 500 price target for the rest of 2026
- Vanguard challenges the S&P 500 as a one-stop strategy
- Goldman Sachs resets Broadcom stock forecast
But his caution is implicit in the framing. Relative strength had been neutral for roughly two weeks heading into the surge, and the daily moving average convergence divergence (MACD) had turned negative before earnings reversed the picture.
My review of the data suggests the core tension here: RKLB has returned 472% over the past year and 68% year to date, according to Yahoo Finance data as of May 11, 2026, closing bell. The S&P 500 is up 8.29% over the same year-to-date period. At some point, even great execution has to catch up to a price.
Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket is the next catalyst, and the next unknown
The piece of the story that hasn’t been fully priced yet is Neutron. Rocket Lab’s medium-lift rocket is targeting its debut launch later in 2026. The company reported ongoing integration of first-flight hardware, continued Archimedes engine qualification, and advancement of second-stage and fairing systems.
Neutron matter because it opens a different market. Larger payloads, bigger contracts, and direct competition with launch providers that currently operate above Electron’s weight class. Five dedicated Neutron launches have already been signed, the company’s X post confirms.
If Neutron delivers, the revenue model changes. If it slips, so does part of the bull case. For a stock trading at all-time highs after a 34% single-day surge, that’s not a footnote.
It’s the next chapter that Sarge, and the rest of Wall Street, will be watching closely.
Related: Veteran analyst revamps AMD price target following big news